What Bagnaia needs to be crowned MotoGP champion today
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The factory Ducati star also holds a similar points advantage: Last year he was 23 clear of Fabio Quartararo (Yamaha), this year he’s 21 ahead of Jorge Martin (Pramac).But the big difference is the inclusion of a Sprint race each weekend in 2023.That means there are still 37 points rather than 25 available at Valencia, increasing Martin’s chances relative to previous showdowns, but it also means Bagnaia can win the crown on Saturday.12 points are available for victory in the Sprint, meaning Bagnaia – having won six grands prix compared with four for Martin, and so will take a tiebreak if points are equal – needs to push his title lead to at least 25 points after the Sprint.These are the finishing scenarios for Bagnaia to be crowned on Saturday and avoid a high-pressure Sunday showdown:Bagnaia will be champion on Saturday at Valencia if…He wins and Martin doesn’t finish better than P3.He finishes P2 and Martin doesn’t finish better than P5.He finishes P3 and Martin doesn’t finish better than P7.He finishes P4 and Martin doesn’t finish better than P8.He finishes P5 and Martin doesn’t finish better than P9.He finishes P6 and Martin fails to score any points.However, that could be a tall order for Bagnaia, with Martin winning 6 of the last 7 Sprint races (and 2nd to Alex Marquez in the other).If Martin wins the Valencia Sprint with Bagnaia in second, the Italian would lose three points from his title lead and go into the Sunday race 18 ahead. If Martin then won in the grand prix as well, Bagnaia must finish in the top nine to retain his crown.However, if the recent trend continues of Martin not only beating Bagnaia in the Sprint, but with several riders in-between, the Sunday mathematics will change.Related Valencia MotoGP, Ricardo Tormo – Qualifying Valencia MotoGP, Ricardo Tormo – Saturday Practice ResultsFor example, Martin’s average Sprint finish since Bagnaia’s Catalunya accident is 1st place, compared with Bagnaia’s average of 4th.If those positions are repeated on Saturday, Bagnaia will go into the Sunday showdown with a 15-point title lead. If Martin won again on Sunday, Bagnaia could afford to finish no lower than sixth place (10 points).
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